The visit of China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India on visited India on August 18-19, first time after China’s 2020 incursions in Eastern Ladakh, co-chairing the 24th round Special Representatives boundary talks with NSA Ajit Doval, meeting EAM S Jaishankar and call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sparked news of a thaw in India-China bilateral relations; although China has been consistently salami-slicing Indian territory through the decades.
Termed ‘Silver Fox’ for his diplomatic skills, Wang emphasized that China and India should regard each other as partners and opportunities rather than rivals or threats. Both sides agreed to; resume direct flights and ease visas; expand the scale of Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra from 2026; China to share hydrological information in emergency situations; re-open trade through Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass and Nathu La Pass; facilitate bilateral trade and investment; maintain multilateral trading system with WTO and promote multipolar world.
A joint working group on border issues is expected to meet again in the coming weeks. China also indicated relaxing exports of Rare Earth Elements (REE) and fertilizers to India, as well as releasing the tunnel boring machine required for Prime Minister Nerendra Modi’s pet-project of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train; held up since 2022 for want of this machine.
After Wang’s call on the prime minister, Modi tweeted: “Glad to meet Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Since my meeting with President Xi in Kazan last year, India-China relations have made steady progress guided by respect for each other’s interests and sensitivities. I look forward to our next meeting in Tianjin on the sidelines of the SCO Summit. Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity.”
Donald Trump’s tariffs and doubling-down on BRICS has contributed to the thaw in India-China relations; leading to an economically convenient bilateral relationship. India’s economy is growing but our interest payments on outstanding debt have nearly tripled over the past decade and are projected to rise to INR 12.76 trillion (USD 158 billion) in FY26, according to the finance ministry data; which is hardly a comfortable situation. India-China bilateral trade in FY 2024-25 (which continues in USD) was USD 127.7 billion, with the trade balance in China’s favour reaching a record high of USD 99.2 billion. The bilateral trade continues in US Dollars and it remains to be seen whether the common BRICS currency being released in 2026 will be adopted by India-China or will a via media be found for part INR/part Yen trade.
As for the border settlement, this vexed issue is unlikely to make much headway with major Chinese claims on Indian Territory. It remains to be seen whether any minor adjustments will come about in future, if at all. Same goes for the de-induction, especially in Eastern Ladakh where PLA has consolidated its new positions since 2020, augmented weapon deployment and logistics support. Besides, China’s new bridge on Pangong Tso enables quick induction of mechanized forces and China’s second expressway through Aksai Chin (G-695 highway) would touch Galwan, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso by 2035. Beijing would be eyeing ore territory of Ladakh to provide depth to the G-695 Highway – similar to China invading Aksai Chin to give depth to its Western Highway – the road China began constructing through Aksai Chin in the 1950s to link the Chinese regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.
India committed the cardinal sin of not calling China the aggressor in eastern Ladakh during 2020 and meekly vacated our strategic positions on the Kailash Range in our own territory that directly overlooked the PLA garrison at Moldo. To top this Jaishankar publicly said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy – can there be anything more pathetic than the EAM signalling this to Beijing? Former CNS and Chairman Admiral Arun Prakash tweeted: “If relative size of economies is seen as arbiter of int’l relations, how come nations like Cuba, N Korea & Iran thumb their noses at the USA or Vietnam at China? India, as a democracy, nuclear weapon state & significant economic & mil power must stand firm against hegemony.”
With China persistently stressing the border issue should be kept separate from bilateral relations, India did not even raise the issue of return to pre-April 2020 positions by both sides. The Chinese readout on Wang’s visit said Jaishankar told visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that “Taiwan is part of China” and Ajit Doval conveyed that India “consistently adhered to the one-China policy”. But the MEA response to this was that there has been no change in India’s position on Taiwan and its ties with Taipei are focused on economy, technology and culture.” India never agreed to the “One China” policy but this clearly shows that New Delhi lacks the spine to tell China don’t expect India to recognize ‘One China” when you don’t recognize “one India” – same way India lacked the spine to call China’s aggression in 2020.
China is also riled on the Tibet issue and succession of the Dalai Lama. As the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday approached on July 6, 2025, headlines in the Indian media read: “India Snubs China, Says No One Except Dalai Lama Can Decide His Successor”. But the MEA spokesperson said, “We have seen reports relating to the statement made by His Holiness the Dalai Lama about the continuation of the Dalai Lama institution. The government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion.” Why this pusillanimous act?
The Chinese embassy in India recently stated that Tibet-related issues are a “thorn” or “bone of contention” in Sino-Indian relations, particularly in the context of Dalai Lama’s succession and his activities in India; urges India to cease support for the Dalai Lama’s group and avoid any actions that interfere with China’s “internal affairs”. True, during the visit of Prime Minister AB Vajpayee to China in 2003, India recognized that the Tibet Autonomous Region is part of China – which was an updated statement of the existing policy under the 1954 Panchsheel Agreement and the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquillity (BPTA) Agreement, which focused on maintaining the status quo of the border and recognizing Tibet as part of China.
But China has hardly maintained peace and tranquillity in border areas since then and now added 90,000 sq km of Arunachal Pradesh to its illegal claims to Indian territory. So, why can’t we tell China under these changed circumstances, we do not recognize Tibet a part of China – more evidence of lacking spine. What is the point of Union Ministers bragging at home that India only shares a border with Tibet, not with China? Beijing must be laughing at this pusillanimity.
No doubt India and China need each other’s markets because of US tariffs but we should not expect any change in Beijing’s support to Pakistan, especially when the CPEC through Pakistan is being extended through Pakistan for easy access to Central Asia and its REE reserves. It would be foolish to think China believes India has dumped the US altogether despite Trump’s idiocies, looking beyond when Trump demits office. Our borders with China may remain peaceful till China decides otherwise. China wants a China-led Asia. Zbigniew Brezinsky wrote in his book ‘The Grand Chess Board’ in 1997: China and India are destined by Geography to be Rivals – with venerable culture and vast population, are likely to compete with each other for resources and influence.
Finally, Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong, referring to the US as a “bully”, said that silence will only embolden the bully. But isn’t China also in the category of bully – holding even Modi’s pet bullet train project to ransom, which is only a small example. Where Jaishankar is in the forefront of showing eyes to the US (unofficially?) and drawing so much applause, why the snivelling when it comes to China? Xu Feihong didn’t elaborate that if you don’t look the bully in the eye, the bully will mount on your head. Can India develop the spine to stand up to China – the major glitch in the Sino-Indian tango?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
