The Murky Manipur Conundrum

Manipur’s State Security Advisor Kuldip Singh said in a press conference on September 20 that government’s intelligence inputs indicate entry of “900 Kuki militants” from Myanmar. These inputs were shared by Chief Minister N Biren Singh’s office with DG Police and the Security Advisor in the previous week.

The 398-km Manipur-Myanmar border is guarded by the Assam Rifles (AR), which is under the operational control of the Indian Army. The Army has asked the Security Advisor for details of this infiltration, to which he is yet to respond. Army’s Spear Corps posted on X:”These inputs have very serious security implications and the office of the Security Adviser has been requested to share the details so that appropriate necessary action can be taken at the earliest.”

Speculation is that the said inputs may have been “imagined: by Biren Singh since Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been saying that the violence in Manipur is only because of infiltrating Kuki militants who are not Manipuris, which certainly is not the case. The move to accord scheduled tribe to the entire majority Meitei community triggered the violence in May 2023.  It is only in February 2024 that the Manipur High Court has ordered deletion of a paragraph from the March 2023 order that urged the state to consider including the Meitei community in the Scheduled tribe, saying the paragraph was in conflict with the Supreme Court’s constitutional bench stance.  

Reasons why Manipur is heading towards civil war can be read here. Violence is continuing, while protests and disinformation have reached a new high.  Defying curfew, student protesters clashed with the police. Many students were reported injured in an attempt to storm Raj Bhavan. The protestors demanded removal of “Centre-appointed” State Security Advisor Kuldip Singh and DG Police Rajiv Singh. The agitation intensified after a rocket bomb attack in Bishenpur and the gunfight in Jiribam in which six people were killed; including the lynching-killing of former Indian Army soldier Limkholoi Mate (Kuki-Zo) by Meitei militants.  

There is little doubt that the student protests (all Meitei) were engineered by Biren Singh’s administration. Their demand seeking the resignation of 50 MLA’s from the Imphal Valley (not the 10 Kuki MLAs) is evidence enough. Seeking the removal of the State’s Security Advisor  and the DGP is to give Manipur police and the Meitei militant groups (Arambai Tenggol included) free-hand in continuing the ethnic cleansing. 

To add credence to the theory of Kuki/foreign hand behind the student protests, a huge poster of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the heart of Imphal was allowed to be torn down – first time incident across India since Modi came to power in May 2014.

All out efforts are on to downplay the ethnic cleansing by Biren Singh – posing that the violence is not a Hindu-Christian problem. However, this is true perhaps only on following two counts: deal signed with a Centre-favoured corporate (advance money taken) for palm plantation on 6,000 hectares of land in Manipur, from where Kuki-Zio were shooed away; taking full control of the narcotics trade, annual turnover of which is assumed to be Rs 50,000 crore.

Ethnic cleansing remains Biren Singh’s main agenda. He denies the existence of Arambai Tenggol but his photographs with them in media proves he is hand-in-glove with the organization. Ironically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not visited Manipur (perhaps on the advice of Amit Shah), nor has the NSA Ajit Doval, who claims to have stayed in Myanmar under cover with Mizo rebels for a few months in his youth.  

In a media interview, Lt. Gen. PC Nair, former DG Assam Rifles (till July 31, 2024) has said that the news about drones dropping bomb was fabricated, in that, no bombs were dropped by drones.

Gen Nair has also reportedly spoken to the Chief of Army Staff on the issue, according to a post on X:

Being in uniform, the Army and Assam Rifles deployed in Manipur cannot speak on the issue. But multiple ground sources confirm no bombs/grenades were dropped by drones in Manipur. Manipur’s Police IG (Ops) LK Muivah has countered what Gen Nair has said. But Muivah is part of the Biren Singh administration and has no option but to abide by the official narrative; under fear of being sacked or done away with. 

The disinformation campaign includes that the Assam Rifles is giving an absolutely free hand to the Kuki-Zo, 3000-6000 veteran Assam Rifles (Kuki-Zo) are joining the Kuki-Zo militant factions, the US is supporting the Kuki-Zo, China is supplying them arms. It is also being said that Kuki-Zo attempted to loot a police armoury, whereas, over 4,000 weapons and some 50,000 rounds of ammunition purportedly looted from police/IRB armories in May 2023 were “distributed” to Meitei militants as per ground sources.

The Manipur Police have been recently equipped with MMGs, which the  Indian Army is not even allowed to carry when called out for restoring law and order in internal security situations; owing to the principle of using ‘minimum force”. But Biren Singh probably believes in employing “maximum force” for effective ethnic cleansing.

The Army is rendered ineffective in Imphal Valley in absence of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which is by design. Biren Singh wants to abrogate the SoO agreement with all the 25 Kuki-Zo-Hmar groups and himself chair the Unified Command of all security forces in Manipur; to get the Army/AR to abide by his sinister designs?

The former Governor of Manipur had reportedly informed the Centre that the ground situation in Manipur is worse than what is being reported in the media. The present situation in Manipur is so bad that AFSPA needs to be immediately re-imposed in all Manipur, including in the Imphal Valley.

General VP Malik, former Chief of Army Staff has suggested that President’s rule should be imposed in Manipur. Earlier, he had also posted on X: Dividing India on the basis of language, religions, castes, flags and so on as vote banks. We forget India’s historical lesson of ‘fighting within’ and which enabled foreigners to rule us for centuries. India’s national security and collective development at stake

But the Centre appears intent on compounding the mess made by Biren Singh since May 2023. Manipur doesn’t even have a full-time governor; Governor of Assam holds the additional charge of Governor Manipur. The Centre appears to believe that the wounds of Manipur will heal by themselves. It is the same Ostrich Policy that was followed when the Chinese invaded Eastern Ladakh during April-May 2020. 

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.