The US, BRICS and India-China

Referring to the India-China agreement to end the standoff in eastern Ladakh US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti has said the US has always supported India’s efforts to safeguard its strategic interests and respect of its borders. Garcetti is the blue-eyed boy of the US Administration for whom the post of ambassador was kept vacant for two years.

Historical Context of US-India-China Relations

Declassified US documents from 1962 reveal that when Jawaharlal Nehru sought American military assistance after China’s invasion, the US administration suggested providing some weapons but emphasized ensuring India and China never form an alliance. In 1972, using Pakistan as an intermediary, Nixon and Kissinger visited China, inadvertently creating a strategic challenge that the US may confront in the future.

Garcetti understands that the India-China agreement primarily aims to resume patrolling. Expectations for China to revert to its pre-April 2020 posture or dismantle permanent structures are unrealistic, despite media portrayals of disengagement. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced disengagement on October 21 but later redefined it as a “breakthrough agreement on patrolling,” raising questions about the true extent of disengagement. Claims of restoring the sanctity of the LAC contradict the Prime Minister’s assertion that no one entered Indian territory.

China historically disregards agreements and global norms. After the India-China pullback at Doklam, the PLA quickly resumed defense developments and occupied North Doklam. BJP MP Tapir Gao informed Parliament that the PLA has occupied territory over 60 km inside Arunachal Pradesh, yet this issue remains underreported.

India-China Economic Interdependence

India’s production capabilities rely heavily on critical raw materials, technology, and technical support from China, making decoupling challenging. While India welcomes Chinese investments, Indian companies also invest in China, such as the Shanghai-based Adani Energy Resources Company (AERCL), incorporated on September 2, 2024. Despite India’s booming economy and $689.5 billion in FOREX reserves, it ranks 105th in the Global Hunger Index, facing severe food insecurity and malnutrition, with 83 million people living below the poverty line.

The West has often downplayed Russia’s economy, yet the IMF ranks it as the world’s fourth-largest economy. Similarly, Western narratives about China’s economic decline overlook its strategic moves to regain influence in Indian markets. China benefits from $100 billion annually through trade with India, with cumulative trade since 2000 exceeding $1.4 trillion.

BRICS and the Shift in Global Financial Dynamics

At the 16th BRICS Summit in Russia (October 2024), Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced a new BRICS payment system, emphasizing the need to reform the international financial structure. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a BRICS investment platform to facilitate mutual investments. The blockchain-based BRICS Pay system aims to promote the use of local currencies for trade, challenging the dominance of the SWIFT payment system.

The summit occurred amid US-led actions like seizing central bank funds from Afghanistan and Russia and weaponizing SWIFT. The US-led G7 sanctioned $50 billion to Ukraine from Russian frozen assets, criticized as economic coercion. Reportedly, 159 out of 193 countries have signed up for the new BRICS settlement system, bypassing SWIFT.

Western media largely ignored the BRICS Summit, with some suggesting limited impact on Western financial dominance. Jim O’Neill, former Goldman Sachs chief economist, noted that attempts to isolate Russia have failed, with Russia strengthening ties with Asia’s rising powers. BRICS now represents 45% of the global population and 35% of the global economy (PPP), with China and India seeking collaborative agreements rather than constant confrontation.

Geopolitical Implications and US Influence

Jim O’Neil doesn’t see a challenge to the dollar but hasn’t commented on the recent news that 159 out of 193 countries have signed up for the new BRICS settlement system. A more pressing question is: what if India-China economic ties continue to grow, setting aside the border issue—a point China has emphasized for years? Would this not deeply concern the US, even though BRICS is still experimenting with an exclusive currency that could accelerate de-dollarization?

To believe the US is pleased with India’s economic rise would be naive. The political maneuvers of Eric Garcetti and his team before India’s general elections this year highlight these implications. Jeffrey D. Sachs explains how America frequently orchestrates regime changes worldwide, including in Pakistan and Bangladesh, using the CIA and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED)—a CIA-funded NGO founded in 1983 under CIA Director William Casey, disguised as a promoter of democratic institutions through global grants.

The Power Play: Regime Changes and Modi’s Strategy

British investigative journalist Kit Klarenberg has described how the CIA and NED operate to down governments (less the failed $1 billion effort to overthrow the government in Syria) and how the regime change was affected in Kiev in 2014 to install Volodymyr Zelensky as the President of Ukraine.

Interestingly, while giving credible explanation of the US involvement in downing the Imran Khan government in Pakistan, Jeffery D Sachs sats the US did not like Imran playing the game with the US, Russia and China simultaneously. The Indian media terms the India-China patrolling agreement a geopolitical signal by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US – not to take India for granted. But wouldn’t the US view Modi playing the same game as Imran Khan?

We may call this Modi’s acumen of tightrope walking but the CIA-NED would be working overtime under Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and Central Asia in the US State Department; Donald Lu being the carbon copy, if not worse, of Victoria Nuland who orchestrated the regime change in Ukraine. Garcetti may be bamboozled for not doing enough. This would be the priority of the US notwithstanding how tight Modi hugs the POTUS – present or the next one.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.